Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the dogs. The Sneaky Pick series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough lines that pay a nice return. Plus, who wants to bet on the favorite?
Tigers (+235) @ Indians
That drone flying fuck Bauer made me eat my words last time I bet against him, but here we are back betting against him on another outing. Bauer has seemed to find his form again after a few tough outings and is back on his dominant bullshit. On the other side, veteran Francisco Liriano takes the ball in the hopes of shutting down the Indians offense.
Liriano had been posting a fairly solid season up until his last few starts where he has been considerably more streaky. After not giving up more than 3 runs in any start this season, 2 of Liriano’s last 3 starts have seen him get roughed up for 5 runs (once against these same Indians).
Assuming those two starts are simply an anomaly, Liriano should be able to keep the Tigers in this game today. While we likely are going to see Bauer toss 7ish innings of 1-2 run ball, expect Liriano to find his form again and match Bauer deep into the game.
Considering the Indians bullpen is currently a pile of AAA arms, if the Tigers can keep this close and make Bauer work enough to the point where he doesn’t throw 8+ innings, the Tigers should be in a very good place to pull this out.
Pick – Tigers (+235)