Blue Jays (+212) @ Astros

Unfortunately for the sneaky picks series, days like today happen when the only decent paying underdog happens to be the one facing Justin Verlander.

We’ve bet against Verlander before with so-so success, but it definitely isn’t something to be taken lightly as the dude is hands down the hottest pitcher in the game of baseball at the moment. Luckily, Happ gets the ball for the Blue Jays and should hopefully be able to at least hang with Verlander and keep the Jays relatively close. While a lot of people shit on the Win-Loss statistic, it still is worth noting that Happ and Verlander have near identical W/L records. Althoug Happ’s ERA is nearly double that of Verlander, it is still an extremely respectable 3.56.

Verlander was actually outdueled in his last outing and the Astros offense has been fairly streaky in terms of providing him run support. For as dominant as Verlander has been, the majority of the games he has thrown in have been low scoring pitchers duels. Facing a guy like Verlander prompts pitchers to step up and bring their best shit too.

The Jays are coming off a couple of nice wins against the Angels while the Astros have beat up on teams like the Royals and Rays (it pains me to say that as a Yankees fan after this weekend) while dropping a few games in the process. Although the Jays aren’t by any means a playoff caliber baseball team, expect Happ to keep this close and for the Jays to do just enough to sneak past Verlander at home.

Pick – Blue Jays (+212)